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In this issue, apart from the usual reporting of activist developments, we hope to identify some names in Asia ex-Japan that might fall prey to activists by looking at the shareholder structure, valuation, free cashflow generation capability, investor relations and activists’ involvement in related competitors. We have focused on the relatively large cap companies where global activists usually target. To be clear, these names will be purely the author’s speculation. There might not be any activist action for reasons unforeseen. Or there might just be! We shall see.
Potential Activists’ Preys in Asia
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TH, Market Cap: USD10.3bn, PER: 20.1x PBR: 3.2x, EV/EBITDA: 12.5x, Dividend Yield: 3.8%) : Thailand’s largest private hospital operator trading at a discount to its peers. Founders hold c.30% including the c.5% ownership by Bangkok Airways which was also founded by the same family. Activists might be able to use family’s insider trading of Bangkok Airways in 2019 to drive improvements.
FPT Vietnam (FPT VN, Market Cap: USD6.6bn, PER: 22.1x PBR: 5.3x, EV/EBITDA: 12.6x, Dividend Yield: 1.6%, Net Cash) : Vietnam’s largest IT service company with no big controlling shareholder. Strong free cashflow generation coupled with net cash (c.USD500m) and relatively reasonable valuation might attract activists’ attention. Additionally, this is a relatively liquid name which allows for quick accumulation of shares for any activist shareholders.
Haw Par (H02 SG, Market Cap: USD2.5bn, PER: 13.0x PBR: 0.8x, Dividend Yield: 1.7%, Net Cash) : Singapore’s UOB Group controlled healthcare product maker which owns UOB shares and has cash that adds up to almost its own market cap. As with most Southeast Asia companies, investor relations can be better. Coincidentally, its sister company UOI has been engaged by an individual activist. We did a video and discussed a bit about Haw Par (c.9min40s). Youtube link below:
Sampoerna (HMSP ID, Market Cap: USD3.7bn, PER: 11.2x PBR: 2.5x, EV/EBITDA: 6.3x, Dividend Yield: 10.6%) : Largest tobacco company in Indonesia which is 92.5% owned by Philip Morris International (PMI), the world’s largest tobacco firm by market cap. Sampoerna’s share price has derated significantly over the last decade. An activist could step in and ask should Sampoerna be listed? Perhaps PMI should take it private. In fact, PMI’s one year’s worth of dividend from Sampoerna itself is enough to do that.
United Tractors (UNTR ID, Market Cap: USD6.1bn, PER: 5.3x PBR: 1.0x, EV/EBITDA: 2.6x, FCF Yield: 9.3%, Dividend Yield: 8.1%, Net Cash) : Indonesia’s largest distributor of construction machinery and heavy equipment at c.60% owned by the Jardine Group, an elusive Singapore-HK conglomerate still controlled by the original British founding family. Similar to Sampoerna, at such valuations, activist might take a chance to seek privatization and earn the quick 40-50% take private premium. On top of that, activist Align Partners have engaged Doosan Bobcat / Doosan Group of Korea, which is in the same construction machinery space in the recent past.
Cayucos Capital wrote an interesting piece on Jardine:
Okay, with that speculations out of the way, we look at the usual noteworthy activist happenings globally. This time, we shall combine both the Japan and global lists. This issue sees interesting developments with multiple activists targeting the same names!
Noteworthy Activist Developments
Bill Holdings (BILL US, Market Cap: USD5.3bn, PER: 24.4x PBR: 1.4x, EV/EBITDA: 17.3x, FCF Yield 5.9%) : Company which has been providing cloud-based software that simplifies, digitizes, and automates back-office financial operations for small and midsize businesses worldwide finds itself targeted by both Elliott (owns 5%) and Starboard Value (owns 13%). Stock surged c.27% in two weeks. This could be an interesting candidate for the portfolio given it is a strong free cashflow generating SAAS business. Recent post on substack by Deep Value Returns although it was a sell thesis.
PepsiCo (MDT US, Market Cap: USD118bn, PER: 16.1x PBR: 2.5x, EV/EBITDA: 13.5x, Dividend Yield 3.1%) : Elliott published its manifesto on PepsiCo articulating its comeback strategies on PepsiCo’s legacy of successes built on its storied glories such as building Frito Lay into the global #1 potato chips brand and successful spinoff of Yum! Brands. It’s definitely an interesting read: https://elliottletters.com/pepsico/
Pepsico, similarly responded on its website, with the following statement:
Elliott’s strategy includes targeted investments in innovation, portfolio transformation, and international growth as well as corporate-wide, multiyear productivity initiatives. We are confident that the successful execution of these initiatives positions PepsiCo to accelerate growth, strengthen our competitive advantage, and deliver meaningful, long-term value for our shareholders.
This seems like a case of constructive activism, perhaps the portfolio should add more Pepsico. Here’s our recent update:
Calbee (2229 JP, Market Cap: USD2.7bn, PER: 21.8x, PBR: 1.9x, EV/EBITDA: 8.9x, FCF Yield 3.2%, Dividend Yield 2.0%) : Japan’s largest potato chips maker, which is c.21% owned by Pepsico, was similarly engaged by Hong Kong’s Oasis to buck up. Calbee’s earnings have stagnated for 10 years. Calbee is a household name in Japan, but with mere market cap of USD2.7bn and share price having done nothing for a decade, the onus is on management to prove the activist wrong. Oasis has gone up the league table and have engaged bigger boys. It might have many good ideas up its sleeves to create shareholder value with Calbee.
Fuji Oil (5017 JP, Market Cap: USD260mn, PER: 2.5x, PBR: 0.5x, FCF Yield >20%, Dividend Yield 2.4%) : Not to be confused with the other Fuji Oil (making cooking oil), this is a small refiner in Japan trading at ridiculously cheap valuations. The company was targeted by the activist family Murakami via one of his vehicle City Index 11 which owned c.5%. It was announced that Idemitsu Kosan, one of Japan’s largest refiner will take Fuji Oil private at c.50% premium.
Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP, Market Cap: USD16.4bn, PER: 8.2x, PBR: 0.8x, EV/EBITDA: 8.7x, FCF Yield 3.3%, Dividend Yield 2.8%) : Japan’s top utility company is being engaged by Elliott which publicized its 4-5% stake recently. Elliott is calling management to sell non-core assets which it estimated to amount to c.JPY2trn (80% of its market cap) including real estate. The monies could then be used to raise dividends and push share price above 1x PBR. Kansai Electric has the largest nuclear power footprint in Japan.
Mandom (4917 JP, Market Cap: USD650mn, PER: 29.3x, PBR: 1.4x, EV/EBITDA: 9.8x, FCF Yield 8.8%, Dividend Yield 1.9%) : Japan’s leading men cosmetics and hairstyle product maker is being taken private by its own management. Mandom has been engaged by multiple activists, notably Hibiki Path Advisors amongst others and this is management’s bid to get the activists off their backs. Hikibi is fighting for a higher price. This is a portfolio name and we made c.50%. So, Hibiki Path Advisors, thank you!
Our analysis on Mandom written in April 2025 and update recently.
Natural Resource Partners (NRP US, Market Cap: USD1.4bn, PER: 9.7x, PBR: 2.3x, EV/EBITDA: 7.8x, FCF Yield 15%, Dividend Yield 2.9%) : This interesting name is being targeted by activist Graystone Capital and other smart investors. Its main business is collecting royalties from the coal and soda ash mines that it owns. NRP is a Master Limited Partnership which for reasons unclear, non-US investors are unable to buy. Nevertheless, it’s worth highlighting. Six Bravo wrote a good article in 2024 and Pound the Rock Investing (Graystone’s founder) has a recent one behind paywall.
Synchro Food (3963 JP, Market Cap: c.USD120mn, PER: 29.3x, PBR: 3.7x, EV/EBITDA: 11.8x, FCF Yield 8.8%, Dividend Yield 2.5%) : Japan’s #1 one-stop-shop platform for restaurant operator benefitting from high restaurant turnovers and labor shortage being engaged by multiple activists. AVI owns c.18% while LIM advisors have another c.14%. The founder has sold down his stake and so, this company is primed for private equity to take over.
Activist Newsletters / Podcasts / Videos / Interesting Stuff
Shareholder Primacy : Michael Levin discusses in an interesting podcast on Tesla’s pay package for Elon which could potentially make him the first trillionaire!
Nippon Active Value Fund : Video discussing shareholder activism in Japan. Youtube video released c.Jun 2025.
Bloomberg on Elliott and Paul Singer : Short 6 min video mentioned how Elliott took on the Argentinian government and got Samsung’s Vice Chairman into jail.
Shinya Deguchi discusses two decades of Japanese shareholder activism below. Must read!
The Fun Section
This last section has nothing to do with activist stock ideas, it’s just funny stuff found on X and elsewhere. Enjoy!
Substacker Japan Guru on family conversation (wife and kids):
Substack PauloMacro on Oracle’s mind-blowing USD455bn RPO announced two week ago:
When your activist stock gets MBO-ed by management with a low ball offer. You want to point the middle finger to management but decides to be more politically correct and shrug like the newscaster below.
Hopefully, invested activists will pound the table hard and seek better offers.
The Japanese phrase 話にならない is commonly translated as “not worth considering,” “out of the question,” or “ridiculous” in English - translated by A.I.
We targeted to publish this at the start of every month, but then realised there is too much going on in the world of shareholder activism. Going forward, we will publish as and when there is enough material.
That’s all folks!
Huat Ah!
This post does not constitute investment advice and should not be deemed to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
Awesome post