Activist Happenings #4
"You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it." - Margaret Thatcher.
This post is updated in Oct 2025.
Welcome to our fourth issue on activist happenings around the world!
A few days ago, Takaichi Sanae won the LDP elections, paving the way to be Japan’s first female Prime Minister. (Update: she became Japan’s first female PM.)
Markets were excited for her to revive Abenomics. Also, seeing her as Japan’s likely answer to Margaret Thatcher, Japan’s stocks rallied hard.
Jesper Koll wrote the following insightful piece.
Michael Fritzell also wrote at length about Ms Takaichi on https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/
Nikkei is now a stone’s throw away from 50,000 but actually, it is still not expensive. Using various AI’s estimates of Nikkei’s 2026 Earnings Per Share (EPS), we arrive at c.JPY3,000 which translates to 16.7x price earnings. Meanwhile, S&P500 is at 25.7x. Relatively speaking, that means there is still upside in Japan!
As such, in this issue, we will again start with Japan and then move on to the rest of the world, but broadly that’s just North America and Europe.
Japan Activist Developments
eGuarantee (8771 JP, Mkt Cap USD510mn, PER: 19.6x PBR: 3.3x, EV/EBITDA: 10.6x, Dividend Yield: 2.3%) : This is an interesting financial services company that helps companies hedge credit risks, especially invoice non-payments in Japan. Ariake Capital, a constructivist fund launched by ex-Goldman Sachs analyst Katsunori Tanaka, currently owns c.7% of outstanding shares. Responding positively, eGuarantee recently revised its policy to improve shareholder returns.
IG Port (3791 JP, Mkt Cap USD590mn, PER: 35x PBR: 3.7x, EV/EBITDA: 8.7x, FCF Yield: 6.6% Dividend Yield: 1.1%) : Japan’s fabled animation studio behind iconic animation like Ghost In The Shell, which was made into Hollywood movie starring Scarlett Johansson in 2017.
Iconic Ghost In The Shell poster back in 1995… The company has been constructively engaged by Hibiki Path Advisors for a while. The firm recently appointed Hibiki’s CIO as an independent advisor on its board. Importantly, the company also announced a capital and business alliance with Sanrio, which will strengthen its IP content lineup. IG’s other recent franchises are shown below.
From IGPort’s Japanese IR materials showcasing its key animation series Soft99 (4464 JP, Mkt Cap USD590mn, PER: 30.1x PBR: 1.5x, EV/EBITDA: 12.8x, FCF Yield: 9.4% Dividend Yield: 1.1%) : Soft99, Japan’s car wax and automotive chemical product company launched a MBO privatization to rid itself of activist Effissimo. But it was a low-ball bid and Effissimo countered with a higher price which was 66% higher at JPY4,100 per share. Inexplicably, Soft99’s board is arguing that shareholders should accept the lower bid. They might just succeed because the top shareholders are either friends or strategic partners. If so, it will be a blow to activism in Japan. Someone should sue. Oct update: Soft99 raised its own bid to JPY2,680, but still way lower than Effissimo’s.
Keeper Technology (6036 JP, Mkt Cap USD670mn, PER: 20.5x PBR: 5.6x, EV/EBITDA: 12.8x, FCF Yield: 3.9% Dividend Yield: 1.6%) : It was reported that another activist, Misaki Capital now owns c.5% of Keeper which is Japan’s largest car waxing company, competitor and interestingly, strategic shareholder to Soft99 above. Misaki is known to be non-hostile and might perhaps engineer another MBO in this somewhat popular car waxing industry in Japan. Or advise both to merge perhaps?
Toyota Industries (6201 JP, Market Cap: USD33.6bn, PER: 17.8x PBR: 1.0x, EV/EBITDA: 13.4x, Dividend Yield: 1.7%) : In what could be seen as Japan Inc’s middle finger to shareholder activists, the parentco of Toyota Motors, is trying to privatize itself at a discount, with support from Japanese banks, affiliated companies within the Toyota Group including its real estate arm and the Toyoda founding family. A few days ago, Japanese newswire reported that the deal is facing delays due to anti-trust issues. Reuters’ link below when the news first broke:
Tokyo Cosmos (6772 JP, Market Cap: USD77m, PER: 20.4x PBR: 1.6x, EV/EBITDA: 6.8x, Dividend Yield: 2.0%) : This is a microcap name in Japan making electronics components for cars, gaming consoles and white goods etc. It was engaged by activist Global ESG Strategy. The activist managed to replace the entire board and appointed its own representative, Mr Yasuto Monden, to be the Representative Director, President and CEO of Tokyo Cosmos. Could this be another privatization candidate?
Meisei Industrial (1976 JP, Market Cap: USD520m, PER: 9.6x PBR: 1.1x, EV/EBITDA: 4.4x, FCF Yield 6.5%, Dividend Yield: 3.7%) : Meisei Industrial specializes in thermal insulation for construction works, an important technology as we need more insulated data centers, more cold chain warehouses in the face of global warming. Dalton related Nippon Active Value Fund has increased its stake to c.10% and likely targeting privatization given the firm’s cheap valuations. This would be an interesting name to monitor.
Our full list of Japan’s Activist Stock Names.
We have the following global section including some US, Canada and European names. We will be following up with a global “live” list of activist stocks as well!
Global Developments
Acadia Healthcare (ACHC US, Market Cap: USD2.4bn, PER: 10.4x, PBR: 0.8x, EV/EBITDA: 6.9x) : Engine Capital publicly engaged Acadia Healthcare, NASDAQ listed mental health facilities operator, in Sep 2025 with its 3% stake. Engine is asking the comapany to pause on its capital intensive projects, followed by an overhaul focusing on governance, cost reduction and asset sale. Acadia responded by announcing USD300m reduction in capex next year.
Akzo Nobel (AKZO NL, Market Cap: USD12.1bn, PER: 14.0x, PBR: 2.5x, EV/EBITDA: 9.6x, Dividend Yield 3.3%) : Akzo Nobel, one of the world’s largest paint company, was engaged by Cevian, Europe’s leading activist investor. In Aug 2025, Cevian disclosed a 3% stake in AKZO causing share price to jump. However, this seemed to be a case of constructive activism with Cevian’s spokesperson publicly stating that they see the long-term potential of AKZO do to better. There is also little public info on the engagement agenda, but A.I. believes that Cevian would ask for sharper portfolio focus and better cost discipline at AKZO.
Bitfarms Ltd (BITF CN, Market Cap: USD1.7bn, PER: -ve PBR: 2.5x, EV/EBITDA: 104.1x) : Canada listed bitcoin miner was engaged by its larger US competitor Riot Platforms earlier this year. Riot built an initial stake of 12% but was poison-pilled by Bitfarms. They went to the courts, Riot upped its stake to 19% and managed to squeeze in a board member in late September. The endgame could be Riot trying to buy Bitfarms on the cheap. But then, Bitfarms is burning cash. So Riot would need to stop the bleed before forking out more money. This story is still unfolding as we discuss. To be continued…
Electronic Arts (EA US, Market Cap: USD50bn, PER: 22.8x PBR: 8.2x, EV/EBITDA: 16.9x, FCF Yield 5.9%,Dividend Yield 0.4%) : Electronic Arts, one of the world’s largest gaming software company behind many game franchises such as Madden NFL, Star Wars Battlefront, The Sims and EA Sports will be taken private for USD55bn by Silver Lake. EA was engaged by an activist >10 years ago but the recent privatization seemed to be driven by the need for better strategies in the cut-throat gaming world and the flexibility of private ownership. Although International Franchise Partners (IFP), which has engaged Kirin and Shiseiko in Japan, is one of the top shareholders of EA.
The Sims 4, now available on Steam CSX (CSX US, Market Cap: USD118bn, PER: 22.1x, PBR: 5.4x, EV/EBITDA: 13.1x, Dividend Yield 1.6%) : CSX, North American railway company transporting coal, agricultural and other finished products is being engaged by Ancora Holdings. The activist has ousted its CEO and is pushing CSX to explore merger options with either BNSF Railway Company (owned by Berkshire Hathaway) or Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC).
SSP (SSPG LN, Market Cap: USD1.8bn, PER: 13.9x, PBR: 8.0x, EV/EBITDA: 4.9x, Dividend Yield 2.2%) : SSP Group PLC is a leading global operator of food and beverage concessions in travel locations, primarily in airports and railway stations. The company is recently engaged by activist Irenic Capital, founded by ex-Elliott employees. Irenic believes SSP is suitable for a leveraged buyout by private equity given its low valuation but good portfolio of businesses including franchises like Upper Crust and Burger King.
Activist Newsletters / Podcasts / Videos / Interesting Stuff
Activism AUM : It was reported that activists had plowed c.JPY1trn (USD 6.6bn) into Japan in the 1H of 2025. This has partly catalyzed c.JPY15trn (almost USD100bn!) in share buybacks insofar. Globally, as much as USD200bn is invested by the top 50 “pure play” activist funds into activist stocks. We live in truly active, exciting times!
Lazard published an interesting report in July which is worth a quick glance https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/review-of-shareholder-activism-h1-2025/
Shareholder Primacy : Amazing podcasters back from summer with interesting discussions with host Michael Levin. Link to podcast below:
10XEBITDA : Very interesting website with past decks from activist investors and presentations from investment bankers at www.10xebitda.com
FT now has a page on investor activism which provided some of the topics above.
Nikkei also has its own activist series (Japanese only) which can be easily translated with A.I.
The Fun Section
This last section has nothing to do with activist stock ideas, it’s just funny stuff found on X. Mostly about A.I. today. What else? Only in A.I. we trust!
Substacker Kingswell quoting Charlie Munger below. Well said!
How the powers that be today are creating the greatest bubble since 1999 🤣. Thanks to Andrej / Andr3jH on X / Twitter.
That’s it folks! If you enjoyed this, please share with your friends and families. Give us a like, so we can stay ahead of the A.I. algorithm. Thanks!
Huat Ah!
This post does not constitute investment advice and should not be deemed to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
"...we arrive at c.JPY3,000 which translates to 16.7x price earnings. Meanwhile, S&P500 is at 25.7x. That means there is still much upside in Japan!"
I feel like this is very dangerous mindset to compare to SP500, as it is largely considered richly valued and does pretty much always trade at a premium to other markets. Probably some basket of US and EU exchanges would be a better benchmark for relative valuation.