Activist Happenings #7
"My natural state is an outsider, and no matter what group I'm in or where I am, I've always felt like I'm outside the group, and I've always been analyzing the group." - Michael Burry
✳️ Welcome to our seventh issue on activist happenings around the world!
✳️ Due to other commitments, we can no longer post regularly.
✳️ We have also stopped all paid subscriptions and this post is free.
✳️ As we wind down for 2025, this update will be short and sweet.
✳️ We will follow the usual setup below. Feel free to skip to the fun section.
1. Japan and Global Activist Developments
2. Featured Activists
3. Activists' Podcasts and Newsletters
4. The Fun Section➡️ We are also posting irregularly on the following platforms:
We are on X. https://x.com/8valueactivist
Youtube. https://www.youtube.com/@8percentpa
And also LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/8percentpa
♥️ You are still welcomed to follow or subscribe!
📈 Without further ado, these are the latest developments in world of activism:
Japan and Global Activist Developments
Horiba Ltd ($6856.JP, Mkt Cap: USD4.4bn, PER: 16.6x, PBR: 2.1x, EV/EBITDA: 7.9x, Dividend Yield: 1.8%) : One of Japan’s top manufacturer for scientific analyzers, environmental monitoring and emission test equipment was engaged by Hong Kong’s Oasis who now owns 9.9% of Horiba. The activist is likely targeting Horiba’s c.JPY90bn (c.USD600m) cash pile to be utilized for better shareholder returns. As with Kyocera, which Oasis engaged earlier this year, Horiba is “over-diversified” and could potentially hive off its Bio & Healthcare business to focus on the more profitable Energy & Environment and Materials & Semiconductor businesses.
Jack in the Box ($JACK.US, Mkt Cap: USD369mn, PER: -ve, PBR: -ve, EV/EBITDA: 8.4x) : GreenWood Investors scored with this constructive engagement with two new director seats on the board of this burger restaurant operator. Alas, this was a case of choosing the less ugly suitor because JACK 0.00%↑ was also being target by another activist Sardar Biglari, who is also the current largest shareholder with 9.9% stake. Management announced its plan to shutdown 150-200 restaurants (out of c.2,200) and selling Del Taco, its c.600 store subsidiary for USD115m, to turn things around.
Japan Post Holdings Intrinsic Value Calculation Japan Post Holdings ($6178.JP, Mkt Cap: USD31.0bn, PER: 11.4x, PBR: 0.5x) : Palliser is betting on Japan’s post office because it is trading at ridiculously cheap valuations as shown on the exhibit above. Add the right most column no.s of everything that JPH holds amount to 204% of its current market cap. Palliser believes it can help JPH unlock value by encouraging the company to improve transparency and accountability, set clear targets to get ROEs up and most importantly, make plans to ultimately sell its vast real estate holdings.
Siemens Energy ($ENR.GY, Mkt Cap: USD122.5bn, PER: 31.7x, PBR: 10.1x, EV/EBITDA: 16.1x) : New setup, Ananym Capital, founded by ex-Jana Partners’ Charlie Penner has launched a campaign against Siemens Energy asking for a split of its loss-making wind energy business from its profitable gas turbine and power grid business. The split can crystallize c.USD1.2bn for shareholders and allow re-rating of its power grid business which is benefitting big-time from data centers and AI demand. Having said that, valuations and share price seemed to have incorporated a lot of the upside (price chart below).
Target Corp ($TGT.US, Mkt Cap: USD45.2bn, PER: 13.0x, PBR: 2.9x, EV/EBITDA: 7.3x, FCF yield: 6.6%) : Target has been targeted by activist TCIM after 12 quarters of consecutive revenue decline as reported by Financial Times. While it unclear what TCIM will propose, FT alluded that Target owns almost 80% of its nearly 2,000 stores in the US and could and should strategize to monetize this property base. That said, this will not be an easy turnaround as Target competes with Walmart ($WMT.US) and Costco ($COST.US), arguably the two best retail operators the world has seen.
Featured Activists
In this section, we would like to highlight a couple of activists mentioned above. Some of the following datapoints are complied with the help of A.I. As they are difficult to verify, please take them with a bucket of salt.
GreenWood Investors (AUM: c.USD120mn | Return: c.10-15%pa | Recent Positions: CTT (Portugal), Swatch Group, $UHR (Switzerland), Jack In The Box $JACK.US) : Steven Wood has built his franchise targeting interesting names in both US and Europe. Swatch, which we also featured on this substack, has done well, up c.30% from its low in the last six months. Their published presentation on Swatch below is worth a read.
https://www.gwinvestors.com/wp-content/uploads/GW-Swatch-2026-Proposals-Presentation-vF.1.pdf
Oasis Management (AUM: c.USD2.5bn | Return: c.15-20%pa | Recent Positions: Kao $4452.JP, Taiyo Holdings $4626.JP, Horiba $6856.JP, Kobayashi Pharma $4967.JP) : One the most successful activist funds in Asia focusing on Japan. The screenshot below shows its top 30 holdings of which many of the top 15 are featured on this substack. Oasis was founded by Seth Fischer who has made quite a name for himself as a formidable activist investor. His fund has also done really well!
Palliser (AUM: c.USD1.5bn | Return: c.15-20%pa | Recent Positions: Japan Post Holdings $6178.JP, SK Square ($402340.KS, Korea), Rin Tinto $RIO.LN) : Palliser was founded by ex-Elliott’s James Smith focusing on activist stocks in North Asia. They have targeted big companies such as Keisei Railway (ParentCo of Oriental Land which operates Tokyo Disneyland), Samsung’s and LG’s subsidiaries and the abovementioned Japan Post Holdings. They also took a stab at Singapore’s Great Eastern’s privatization, calling the deal “gravely unfair” for shareholders. ST link below.
Activist Newsletters / Podcasts / Videos / Interesting Stuff
"Investor's Sunday" (インベスターズ・サンデー) is a popular Japanese radio program on InterFM (Tokyo 89.7 MHz). They recently interviewed Steel Partners! Podcast below is 50% English and 50% Japanese, which is by and large, translation of the speaker, Warren Lichtenstein’s answers. Dalton’s Nishida Masumi is also on the podcast.
UK based activist AVI’s most recent newsletter below. They publish every month and it is free for all to read!
Link to all letters: https://www.assetvalueinvestors.com/newsletters/
November’s newsletter: https://www.assetvalueinvestors.com/content/uploads/2025/12/AJSS-Newsletter-NOV-2025.pdf
The Fun Section
✅ This last section has nothing to do with activist stock ideas, it’s just funny stuff found on Substack, X and the rest of cyberspace. Enjoy!
👆The verdict is not out! Crypto may come back with a vengeance! 💰
♥️ 2026 will be YOUR YEAR! It’s year of the Fire Horse, in the Chinese Zodiac Calendar! The Year of the Bull is also coming soon!
😊 Sorry that’s a lie. The next Year of the Bull (technically it’s Ox) is 2033. Fortunately or unfortunately, there is no Year of the Bear.
㊗️ Happy Holidays and wishing you the Absolute Best for 2026!
Huat Ah!
This post does not constitute investment advice and should not be deemed to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.