Portfolio Newsletter and Trades Update #8
"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance!" - Chuck Prince.
We target to provide monthly trade updates and quarterly portfolio newsletters. This is our combined update for September. Quarterly newsletters will be published in March, June, September and December.
So what transpired since our last portfolio update?
1. Market Update
A.I. stocks led the market to dance and gosh, how market participants danced! Now, everyone’s high. Very high. As of this writing, MSCI World is up 14% Year-To-Date (YTD). Hang Seng up a whopping 30% YTD, Singapore’s STI is up 15% YTD, NASDAQ is up 13% YTD, Nikkei is up 11% YTD and the S&P500 is at all-time high, even though it is only up 11% YTD.
What happened to Trump’s tariffs and the world going down the roller coaster? Well, didn’t happen. Ukraine and Russia? Israel bombing Qatar? No issues at all. Isn’t China still not doing well? Nope, China’s markets are up c.15% YTD! Mag 7 continues to ra-ra, and we may need new name soon, to include Oracle.
That’s investing. It is just so hard to predict anything. Now, the market narrative is A.I. will create a brave new world and rule over Men, Middle Earth and the Multi-verse. This Is The Way. All is good. In fact, all is All Too Well (10 min Taylor’s version).
Just to highlight some key events:
Oracle ($ORCL) shot the lights out with USD455bn RPO, which stands for Remaining Performance Obligations driven by demand for training A.I. This is just mind-blogging. By comparison, Oracle’s revenue in 2024 was c.USD53bn. The stock popped c.40% making Larry Ellison the richest man in our universe now. Elon Musk is not happy.
Japan activism, while interesting, is not on most dancers’ minds. Yes, money is being made and Topix is enjoying its own quiet rally, surpassing its all-time high back in 1989. There were some shout-outs, but quickly over-shadowed by bigger news, like Taylor’s and Travis’ engagement. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba resigned and the stock market rallied even more. The following shows the list of top performers in Japan for the past six months.
There is only one activist name: Taiyo Holdings, a chemical company engaged by HK’s activist, Oasis. A.I. highlighted the engagement between Hidesho Ltd and Mitsui Mining and Smelting but actually, its share price rally was driven by earnings upgrades, with strong copper foil demand from semiconductors (which ultimately is A.I. again!) boosting its functional materials segment revenue.
South East Asia also did well with over 80 names making >50% returns and close to 40 names making 100% returns. As shown, a lot of Indonesian names are up, despite riots in Indonesia. See link below:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2025_Indonesian_protests
Looking at the screenshot of the top names again. Yup, SuperX AI Technology tops the list. Many other energy and chemical names did well too. In the previous post, we screened for some activist actions in South East Asia but perhaps, we are too ahead of the curve. Video below:
2. Portfolio Returns
Portfolio return improved further to c.27% since inception in 2023 but continues to lag all major indices we track, namely the S&P500, the Nikkei and Singapore’s Straits Times Index. Over the same period, S&P500 is up 44%, Nikkei is up 27%, and STI is up 32%.
While most portfolio names show upside, we are mindful that the markets are very bullish. We will continue to focus on adding more activist ideas and we will trim some weaker names. Activist stocks “in play” are currently c.50% of the portfolio, we hope to bring this closer to 70% over time.
In this update, we also hope to discuss privatised names and exits in our portfolio. The first such name was Activision Blizzard, which was taken out by Microsoft. It had nothing to do with activism though. It was cheap, we spotted it, then it got gobbled up.
Going forward, we would expect a lot more privatisations because when companies are being harassed by activists, going private is a very alluring option. Management get to keep their jobs, call it a win against the activist and if they own stocks, they get paid too!
With that, we wish to share some permanent exits and some takeaways below:
Activision Blizzard: As mentioned, exited in late 2023 via Microsoft’s take private with c.20% profit. Takeaway: did not buy enough.
SGX: Exited in early 2025 when stock price got close to intrinsic value with c.37% profit. We wanted to focus on activist names, so we decided to sell this stock completely, but share price continued to rally. We missed another c.30% upside. Takeaway: time exits better, perhaps selling in tranches.
SBS Transit: Exited in Aug 2025 when stock price exceeded intrinsic value with c.26% profit. Similarly, we sold because we wanted to focus on activist names. Additionally, the portfolio clipped another 12% of dividends from this stock over two years. Takeaway: so far, looks like a good exit.
Michael Fritzell did a good presentation some years back:
Mandom: Exited in Sep 2025 with c.58% profit as share price went above JPY2,000 which was above take private price of JPY1,960 per share. More on this below. Takeaway: did not buy enough and still too early to tell.
As alluded to, we had awesome luck this quarter with two key events. First is Mandom (ticker: 4917 JP), mentioned above. This Japanese hairstyling product maker, was privatised by private equity. We kinda predicted this on our original post, now taken off the paywall. Second, we have Warner Bros Discovery (ticker: $WBD), which will be bought by Paramount Skydance. This came as a positive surprise.
More on Warner Bros Discovery
Larry Ellison, founder of Oracle (yep the same one above), and now the richest man alive and his son, decided that owning just the smallest US media content house, Paramount Skydance ($PSKY) alone doesn’t cut it. They should also buy Warner Brothers, merge the two to compete with Disney and Netflix! $WBD’s share price popped c.40% over 2 days. Stock is up 125% since we bought it.
The following is reproduced by the author after reading similar creations from smart people on X / Twitter. Apologies, cannot remember who. But thanks, anonymous geniuses.
Larry: How's Paramount dancing?
Son: Dad, I need a bigger toy.
Larry: I got you Skydance, then Paramount. Isn't that enough?
Son: Paramount is not in the Big Boy's League, Dad.
Larry: What else do you need?
Son: Warner Bro Discovery.
Larry: You still like Harry Potter?
Son: Come on, you just became the richest man alive.
Larry: Ok, Fair point. How much is it?
Son: About $70 billion.
Larry: Sure, remember to call Sam and thank him first.
Son: Yes sir.
Larry: Call Elon too, ask him if he likes Harry Potter. Maybe he will chip in $20 billion.
Son: He likes DC. Maybe Batman.
Larry: Oh, they have that too? That's great. What about LOTR?
Son: Yep, they have that. And also Game of Thrones.
Larry: Great, happy to pay up to $80 billion. Don't let your stepmother know. Don't want her to ask for Netflix.
Son: Thanks Dad!Warner Bro Discovery was one of our earliest portfolio names and it was not doing well until recently. So, thank you! Larry and son. Our followers and we love you. Please buy Adobe, Bayer and Diageo too.
